主题：A Structural Measure of the Shadow Federal Funds Rate

主讲人：James Morley，悉尼大学经济学院宏观经济学教授

时间：11月29日（周三）上午10:00-11:30

地点：4-101教室

语言：英文

摘要：

We propose a shadow policy interest rate based on an estimated structural model that accounts for the zero lower bound. The lower bound constraint, if expected to bind, is contractionary and increases the shadow rate compared to an unconstrained systematic policy response. By contrast, forward guidance and other unconventional policies that extend the expected duration of zero-interest-rate policy are expansionary and decrease the shadow rate. By quantifying these distinct effects, our ‘structural’ shadow federal funds rate better captures the stance of monetary policy for given economic conditions than a shadow rate based only on the term structure of interest rates.

主讲人介绍：

James Morley is Professor of Macroeconomics at the University of Sydney and Co-Director of the "Global Perspectives on Economic Policy" initiative for the Faculty of Arts & Social Sciences. He is a Fellow of the International Association for Applied Econometrics and a member of the ARC College of Experts. His research is on the empirical analysis of business cycles, stabilization policy, and sources of persistent changes in macroeconomic and financial conditions.